Giappone, energia, competizione internazionale Wsws 06-06-15
Il Giappone progetta una strategia globale aggressiva per
l’energia
John Chan
Tesi JFIR: Occorre maggiore assertività da parte del
Giappone per assicurarsi le risorse energetiche vitali. Anche le altre nazioni
non lasciano al mercato l’accessibilità alle risorse energetiche.
Tesi WSWS: In crescita le tensioni politiche internazionali
per l’accesso alle fonti energetiche: risaltano in particolare quelle tra
Giappone e Cina; Giappone-Usa; il Centro Asia area di nuove iniziative
giapponesi.
La think tank JFIR, Japan Forum for International Relations, in un documento
sulla politica energetica e della sicurezza sollecita il governo giapponese ad intervenire attivamente per
assicurarsi il rifornimento di petrolio e gas, elementi vitali per la
“esistenza come Stato” del Giappone, che è indietro rispetto alle altre
potenze per iniziative in questo senso.
In seguito ai mutamenti nelle relazioni internazionali degli
ultimi anni «gli interessi nazionali hanno cominciato a scontrarsi sul mercato
internazionale dell’energia», per questo il Giappone ha più che mai bisogno di
una strategia per l’energia.
Masahisa Naito, presidente dell’Institute of Energy
Economics ritiene che il prezzo del petrolio non sia più determinato da reali
meccanismi di mercato; il presidente JFIR, Kenichi Ito: se lo shock petrolifero
degli anni 1970 fu causato dal MO, il rischio di quello attuale deriva dalla
forte crescita della Cina.
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Gli USA hanno
occupato l’Irak e minacciano di attaccare l’Iran per indebolire i concorrenti
europei ed asiatici dipendenti dal petrolio mediorientale.
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La Cina
utilizza le sue società petrolifere statali per acquistare o investire nel
settore energetico in Russia, Asia Centrale, America Latina e Africa.
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La Russia
utilizza in modo crescente le sue riserve energetiche come arma politica per
assicurarsi alleanze, e riprendersi la sfera d’influenza in Est Europa
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Il Giappone,
seconda maggiore potenza e terzo maggiore consumatore di energia è vulnerabile
perché non possiede riserve energetiche e dipende dal MO per oltre l’80% del
suo import energetico; ha appoggiato l’occupazione a guida americana dell’Irak
per assicurarsi l’accesso alle sue riserve petrolifere.
–
La ricerca di
rifornimenti energetici porta a potenziali tensioni con gli USA; WSJ del 16
maggio rileva l’attività dei gruppi petroliferi giapponesi sovvenzionata dal
governo per acquisizioni nel settore petrolifero; Tokyo progetta di aumentare
dal 15 al 40% le importazioni da giacimenti posseduti e gestiti da società
giapponesi entro il 2030.
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L’Iran è il
terzo maggior fornitore energetico del Giappone; il cambio di regime in Iran
sollecitato dagli USA metterebbe a rischio i contratti stipulati dalle società
giapponesi con Teheran. La giapponese Nippon Oil Corporation intende quest’anno
ridurre del 15% l’import di petrolio dall’Iran, gran parte causa delle minacce USA. Al contempo Inpex sta
cercando di sviluppare il grande giacimento petrolifero iraniano di Azadegan,
che potrebbe produrre 250 000 b/g.
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Il Giappone
si trova diviso tra i suoi interessi petroliferi e le richieste americane di
appoggiare le misure contro l’Iran.
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A sua volta
gli USA temono che l’Iran utilizzi le sue riserve energetiche per fare
pressione su Gippone, India e Cina. Hanno offerto in cambio della politica
americana per un cambio di regime in l’Iran, l’accesso al petrolio in Libia,
Iran etc. Tokyo non intende dipendere però dalle concessioni USA.
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Lo scoppio
della SGM nel Pacifico fu spinto da conflitti sulle risoserse; nel 1931 il
Giappone si annetté la Manciuria per avere il controllo del suo petrolio, ferro
e carbone, scontrandosi con USA e GB, conflitto inasprito dall’invasione
giapponese della Cina. Nel 1941, dopo l’embargo petrolifero imposto dagli USA,
il Giappone attaccò Pearl Harbor.
Tra i suggerimenti:
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Diversificazione
dei rifornimenti, riducendo quelli dal MO e aumentando a lungo termine l’import
di gas e petrolio dalla Russia.
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Utilizzare
FDI e aiuti finanziari per costituire “un gruppo stabile di paesi fornitori” in
MO, Africa e Asia Centrale.
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Utilizzare
gli oleodotti come metodo di trasferimento stabile a lungo termine, in
particolare dalle regioni russe della Siberia orientale e Sakhalin.
Questi progetti
portano inevitabilmente a una collisione con la Cina, che mira anch’essa
ai rifornimenti russi; Cina e Giappone competono per la costruzione di
oleodotti e gasdotti verso la Siberia, e sono in contesa su una serie di
giacimenti di gas nel Mar di Cina orientale. Appoggiati dal governo giapponese le due società petrolifere Inpex
Holdings e Teikoku stanno iniziando le prospezioni nell’area disputata.
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Inpex
Holding, per 29% di proprietà dello Stato giapponese, progetta investimenti per
$6MD per campi di gas al largo della costa nord-occidentale dell’Australia;
previsioni di 12mn. di tonnellate di GNL l’anno, pari a 1/5 del fabbisogno giapponese.
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Inpex Holding
è intervenuta anche in Indonesia, Brasile, Mar Caspio e Libia.
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Il governo
giapponese sta incoraggiando i maggiori gruppi come Mitsui, Mitsubishi e Japan
Petroleum Exploration a operare FDI nel settore energetico, anche in Guinea
Equatoriale, Libia, etc.
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Rivalità
nippo-cinesi anche in Centro Asia; il 5 giugno i giapponesi hanno organizzato
una conferenza con 4 paesi dell’aera, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan e
Uzbekistan, per accrescere la cooperazione sull’energia e la “guerra contro il
terrorismo”.
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Il Giappone
progetta la costruzione di una strada dal Sud Tajikistan all’Afghanistan, che
consente un accesso alternativo al Centro Asia, evitando Cina e Russia.
Wsws 06-06-15
Japan
plans aggressive global energy strategy
By John Chan
Amid intensifying competition among the major powers for oil and gas,
Japan is quietly preparing its own strategy to counter its economic rivals,
including the US, and secure access to adequate energy supplies.
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The Japan Forum for
International Relations (JFIR), a Tokyo-based thinktank, submitted a
policy document on energy and security last month to Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi. Although it pays lip service to “cooperation” with other
countries, at the heart of the
document is a call for a “grand design that matches our national interests”.
The report took nearly a year
to produce and involved a team of strategic experts and analysts.
The JFIR document argued that Japan can
no longer afford to see energy
simply as a commodity to be purchased on the international market but has to
regard it as a vital strategic
ingredient for Japan’s “existence as a state”. It urged active state intervention
to secure supplies of oil and gas and warned that Japan is “lagging behind”
other major powers in doing so.
Masahisa Naito, chairman of the Institute of Energy Economics, who led the JFIR debate, explained: “Oil prices are no longer determined by the effective
market mechanism.” Referring to China’s rapidly growing demand for oil,
JFIR president Kenichi Ito declared:
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“The oil shocks in 1970s originated in the Middle East,
while the currently emerging oil shock is coming from China.”
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The US has occupied Iraq and threatened to attack Iran in
order to undermine its rivals in Europe and Asia, which
are dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
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Beijing is actively using
state-controlled oil companies to buy or invest in energy assets in resource-rich
countries in Russia, Central Asia, Latin America and Africa.
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Russia, on the other hand, is
increasingly utilising its large oil and gas reserves as a political weapon to
secure alliances and shore up its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.
Japan is particularly vulnerable in this
competition for energy. It is the world’s second largest economy and third largest oil consumer after
US and China but has no
oil of its own and depends on the Middle East for more than 80 percent of its
imports. Japan joined the US-led occupation of Iraq to ensure access to
that country’s untapped oil reserves.
Like the European powers, China and
Russia, Japan’s economic
interests are threatened by the Bush administration’s bellicose stance against
Iran. A US-sponsored “regime
change” in Iran would call into question oil contracts signed by Japanese
corporations with Tehran. Iran is currently Japan’s third largest oil supplier.
In March, Nippon Oil Corporation announced plans to lower oil imports from Iran by 15 percent this
year, largely due to the US threats against Teheran.
The JFIR report commented that the shift
of international relations in recent years
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“has caused national interests
to start colliding in the international energy market”. There has never been a
time, it stated, when an energy strategy “has been more sorely needed for a
country as poor in energy resources as Japan”.
Although the document did not offer a
specific plan,
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it outlined a series of recommendations. The
main proposal was to diversify energy supplies away from the Middle East by
utilising Russian oil and gas as a long-term strategy.
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It also suggested the use of
investment, financial aid and other benefits to establish a stable group of
“oil-supplying nations” in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
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Moreover, it urged Tokyo to use pipelines as a stable
long-term method of supply, especially from the Russian regions of Eastern
Siberia and Sakhalin.
The JFIR warned of the dangers of
becoming too dependent on one source of oil. “[I]t is important to act after
having taken due consideration of the risk of the kind of situation that
occurred between Russia and the Ukraine from late 2005 to early 2006 with the
supply of natural gas being stopped. In addition, the security of energy transport
routes us also an important issue, including the problem of safe passage
through Straits of Malacca.”
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Such plans will inevitably
bring Japan into conflict with China, which is also looking to Russia for much
needed fuel supplies. China and Japan are competing to build oil and gas
pipelines to Siberia and are embroiled in a dispute over a series of gasfields
in the East China Sea. With government backing, two Japanese oil companies
Inpex Holdings and Teikoku are starting exploration in the disputed areas.
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Japan and China are also rivals
in Central Asia. Japanese
officials held a meeting on June 5 with their counterparts from four Central
Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—to
discuss an “action plan” to enhance cooperation on energy and the “war on
terror”. As part of its “Silk Road Diplomacy”, Japan plans to build a road from
Tajikistan south to Afghanistan—allowing alternative access to landlocked
Central Asia that avoids China and Russia.
Strategic interests
Japan’s drive for oil and gas also has
the potential to generate
tension with its US ally. The Wall Street Journal warned on May 16 that Japan’s efforts to “lock
up” overseas energy supplies was likely to further drive up world’s oil prices.
It pointed out that Japan’s
leading oil corporations were heading overseas, with the help of government
subsidies, to acquire oil assets. Tokyo is planning to increase oil imports
from fields owned and operated by Japanese companies from 15 percent to 40
percent by 2030.
A Japanese energy official told the
newspaper that Japan did not believe the theory that high oil prices would
solve the problems of supply by driving companies to invest and sell more oil
on the open market. For its energy security, Japan had to control and operate
its own oil assets around the world.
Inpex Holdings, in which the Japanese government owns a 29 percent stake,
has plans to invest $6 billion to develop an offshore natural gas field off the
coast of northwestern Australia. The project could produce 12 million tonnes of
liquefied natural gas a year or one fifth of Japan’s demands. The company has
also been active in Indonesia, Brazil, the Caspian Sea and Libya.
The Koizumi government is encouraging major Japanese corporations such as
Mitsui, Mitsubishi and Japan Petroleum Exploration to be more aggressive in
investing in overseas energy assets, including in Equatorial Guinea, Libya and
elsewhere.
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In the case of Iran, Japan is
already caught between its substantial oil interests there and US demands that
it support punitive measures against Tehran over its nuclear program. Iran’s ambassador to Tokyo warned
Japan on May 17 not to back UN resolutions against Iran, hinting at
retaliation. Inpex is seeking to develop Iran’s massive Azadegan oil field that
could produce 250,000 barrels a day.
In an interview in the Asahi Shimbun the
next day, the US ambassador to
the UN, John Bolton, bluntly warned Japan not to be “manipulated” by Iran.
“This is what we’ve been
worried about, about Iran’s very savvy use of its oil and natural gas resources
to apply leverage on countries like Japan and India and China that
have large and growing energy demands,” he declared.
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Bolton then offered a
thinly-disguised bribe to Tokyo, declaring: “There are all kinds of possibilities, now that economic
sanctions are lifted, for exploration and drilling in Libyan oil assets. I’m
sure that’s something that Japanese planners are considering.” In other
words, by backing US plans for “regime change” in Tehran, Japan could gain access to oil in
Libya, Iran or elsewhere. Tokyo is well aware, however, that the US
would then determine the size of its ration of oil and gas.
These great power tensions are highly
explosive. It is worth
recalling that the outbreak of World War II in the Pacific was driven by
conflicts over resources. In 1931, in the midst of the Great Depression,
Japan annexed Manchuria to gain control of the region’s oil, iron ore and coal.
In doing so, Japan antagonised the US and Britain and the conflict deepened
after it invaded China in 1937. In 1941, after the US imposed an oil embargo,
Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.